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PHI@
NYK
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
G · Philadelphia 76ers
6'5"· 204 lbs· 33 years old
PHINYKMontolo Projects
8.6
PTS
2.7
REB
2.0
AST
0.8
3PM
21.0
MIN
13.3
PRA
0.9
STL
0.2
BLK
1.0
TOV
1.2
PF
83%Projection Support
Minutes75%Role100%Availability100%Stat Stability35%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
NYK vs SG
How NYK has defended the SG position recently.
8.6
PTS allowed
2.6
REB allowed
2.0
AST allowed
1.4
3PM allowed
Based on 70 opposing SG performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
8.8
Average PTS
10
Games
15
High PTS
0
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
20%
2/10 historical
15%
model
20+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
3%
model
25+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
30+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationDecreasing0.14vs 0.19 usual
Offensive LoadIncreasing0.19vs 0.16 usual
Frontcourt LoadStable0.02vs 0.02 usual
Creation responsibility has decreased and Offensive load has increased relative to this player's own recent baseline. Other role indicators are stable.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
manual lineup: bench
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+21.8
- 85mi travel, 163 day rest-0.0
- DNP-risk adjustment (p=9%)-1.0
- Rotation-entry adjustment (p_entry=86%)+0.2
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+8.8
- Opponent defensive rating-0.2
Recent role context: Creation responsibility is below this player's own recent baseline, while Offensive Load is above its own recent baseline.
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 20 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE5.1
Bias+2.1
Median AE4.3
20 evaluated games
REB
MAE1.7
Bias-0.1
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS15%+583
- 20+ PTS3%+3175
- 25+ PTS0%+28274
- 30+ PTS0%+99900
- 35+ PTS0%+99900
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB