Model Performance

27254 evaluated pregame projections

Model Versions

Version	Algorithm	Status	Created
baseline-v0.2.0	statistical_baseline	Active	8/23/2026
baseline-v0.1.0	statistical_baseline	Inactive	8/23/2026

Accuracy Metrics

MAE / RMSE / bias by stat and segment — most recently computed

Model	Stat	Segment	Metric	Value	N
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	high_minutes	RMSE	1.73	83
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	all	RMSE	1.26	259
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	high_minutes	BIAS	-0.14	83
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	low_minutes	MAE	2.61	176
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	all	BIAS	0.40	259
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	high_minutes	MAE	6.23	83
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	all	RMSE	2.39	259
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	high_minutes	BIAS	-0.99	83
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	low_minutes	BIAS	0.21	176
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	low_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	0.16	176
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	high_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	4.16	83
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	low_minutes	MAE	0.42	176
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	all	BIAS	0.67	259
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	high_minutes	MAE	1.80	83
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	low_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	0.03	176
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	all	MEDIAN_AE	0.16	259
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	low_minutes	RMSE	1.38	176
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	all	MEDIAN_AE	0.64	259
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	all	BIAS	0.55	259
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	all	MEDIAN_AE	1.00	259
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	high_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	1.04	83
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	all	RMSE	7.68	259
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	high_minutes	BIAS	-1.11	83
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	all	MAE	1.55	259
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	low_minutes	BIAS	2.84	176
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	low_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	1.00	176
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	high_minutes	MAE	4.97	83
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	high_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	1.54	83
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	low_minutes	BIAS	1.50	176
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	high_minutes	RMSE	6.48	83
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	high_minutes	BIAS	-0.23	83
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	high_minutes	MAE	1.68	83
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	low_minutes	RMSE	0.96	176
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	low_minutes	RMSE	7.53	176
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	all	BIAS	1.61	259
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	all	RMSE	1.73	259
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	all	BIAS	0.10	259
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	all	MAE	3.36	259
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	high_minutes	BIAS	0.35	83
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	all	MEDIAN_AE	3.56	259
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	all	RMSE	5.60	259
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	low_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	2.12	176
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	high_minutes	RMSE	8.01	83
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	low_minutes	BIAS	0.42	176
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	all	MAE	0.70	259
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	low_minutes	RMSE	5.13	176
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	low_minutes	RMSE	2.34	176
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	high_minutes	MAE	1.30	83
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	high_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	5.11	83
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	low_minutes	MAE	0.77	176
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	high_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	1.23	83
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	low_minutes	MAE	4.49	176
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	low_minutes	MAE	1.42	176
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	low_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	0.00	176
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	all	MAE	5.05	259
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	all	MAE	1.06	259
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	all	MEDIAN_AE	2.00	259
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	low_minutes	BIAS	0.92	176
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	high_minutes	RMSE	2.31	83
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	high_minutes	RMSE	2.48	83
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	all	BIAS	0.32	895
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	all	RMSE	1.15	895
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	low_minutes	MAE	0.42	609
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	all	RMSE	1.74	895
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	low_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	2.64	609
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	high_minutes	MAE	5.49	286
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	high_minutes	BIAS	-0.12	286
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	all	MEDIAN_AE	2.48	895
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	all	BIAS	2.40	895
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	high_minutes	RMSE	2.06	286
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	all	MEDIAN_AE	0.61	895
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	all	RMSE	5.98	895
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	all	BIAS	0.74	895
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	low_minutes	BIAS	3.77	609
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	high_minutes	BIAS	-0.53	286
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	low_minutes	RMSE	5.39	609
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	all	MEDIAN_AE	1.00	895
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	all	MEDIAN_AE	4.00	895
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	all	MEDIAN_AE	0.21	895
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	all	RMSE	8.77	895
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	high_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	5.13	286
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	high_minutes	RMSE	1.56	286
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	low_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	1.00	609
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	high_minutes	MAE	6.80	286
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	low_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	0.00	609
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	high_minutes	RMSE	2.46	286
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	high_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	1.54	286
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	high_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	4.21	286
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	low_minutes	RMSE	0.90	609
baseline-v0.2.0	PRA	high_minutes	RMSE	8.76	286
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	all	MAE	1.05	895
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	low_minutes	MAE	0.80	609
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	high_minutes	MAE	1.92	286
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	high_minutes	MEDIAN_AE	1.22	286
baseline-v0.2.0	REB	low_minutes	RMSE	3.02	609
baseline-v0.2.0	AST	high_minutes	MAE	1.60	286
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	all	BIAS	0.12	895
baseline-v0.2.0	FG3M	high_minutes	BIAS	-0.04	286
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	all	BIAS	1.33	895
baseline-v0.2.0	PTS	high_minutes	BIAS	-0.33	286