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OKC@
SAS
Brooks Barnhizer
G · Oklahoma City Thunder
6'5"· 230 lbs· 24 years old
OKCSASMontolo Projects
0.2
PTS
0.4
REB
0.1
AST
0.0
3PM
1.4
MIN
0.6
PRA
0.0
STL
0.0
BLK
0.1
TOV
0.1
PF
49%Projection Support
Minutes9%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability0%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
SAS vs SG
How SAS has defended the SG position recently.
7.1
PTS allowed
2.6
REB allowed
1.7
AST allowed
1.1
3PM allowed
Based on 123 opposing SG performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
2.3
Average PTS
10
Games
14
High PTS
0
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
20+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
25+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
30+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationStable0.09vs 0.08 usual
Offensive LoadStable0.08vs 0.08 usual
Frontcourt LoadIncreasing0.06vs 0.03 usual
Frontcourt load has increased relative to this player's own recent baseline. Other role indicators are stable.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+9.8
- 420mi travel, 143 day rest-0.0
- No minutes — team's 240-minute regulation budget already spoken for by the rotation ahead-9.8
- Rotation-entry adjustment (p_entry=83%)+1.4
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+0.2
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
0.07.4
0.0
P10
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 6 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE1.9
Bias+1.2
Median AE1.2
6 evaluated games
REB
MAE1.2
Bias+0.9
Median AE1.0
6 evaluated games
AST
MAE0.5
Bias+0.3
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS0%+23622
- 20+ PTS0%+99900
- 25+ PTS0%+99900
- 30+ PTS0%+99900
- 35+ PTS0%+99900
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB