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PHI@
NYK
VJ Edgecombe
G · Philadelphia 76ers
6'4"· 190 lbs· 21 years old
PHINYKMontolo Projects
14.1
PTS
5.7
REB
4.2
AST
1.6
3PM
35.7
MIN
24.0
PRA
1.2
STL
0.3
BLK
1.8
TOV
2.5
PF
90%Projection Support
Minutes88%Role100%Availability100%Stat Stability59%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
NYK vs SG
How NYK has defended the SG position recently.
8.6
PTS allowed
2.6
REB allowed
2.0
AST allowed
1.4
3PM allowed
Based on 70 opposing SG performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
14.1
Average PTS
10
Games
30
High PTS
6
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
30%
3/10 historical
44%
model
20+ PTS
20%
2/10 historical
18%
model
25+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
5%
model
30+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
1%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationStable0.17vs 0.16 usual
Offensive LoadStable0.19vs 0.20 usual
Frontcourt LoadStable0.05vs 0.04 usual
Recent role has been stable relative to this player's own baseline.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
manual lineup: starter
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+35.7
- 85mi travel, 163 day rest-0.0
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+14.4
- Opponent defensive rating-0.3
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
5.822.4
5.8
P10
9.7
P25
14.1
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 7 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE4.7
Bias-1.8
Median AE3.8
7 evaluated games
REB
MAE2.1
Bias+0.2
Median AE1.5
7 evaluated games
AST
MAE1.3
Bias
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS44%+125
- 20+ PTS18%+452
- 25+ PTS5%+2065
- 30+ PTS1%+14097
- 35+ PTS0%+99900
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB