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OKC@
SAS
Dylan Harper
G · San Antonio Spurs
6'5"· 215 lbs· 20 years old
OKCSASMontolo Projects
13.8
PTS
6.1
REB
3.0
AST
0.9
3PM
28.8
MIN
22.9
PRA
1.0
STL
0.2
BLK
1.7
TOV
2.4
PF
77%Projection Support
Minutes77%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability54%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
OKC vs SG
How OKC has defended the SG position recently.
9.5
PTS allowed
3.0
REB allowed
2.2
AST allowed
1.4
3PM allowed
Based on 85 opposing SG performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
13.8
Average PTS
10
Games
25
High PTS
5
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
50%
5/10 historical
44%
model
20+ PTS
20%
2/10 historical
20%
model
25+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
6%
model
30+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
1%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationDecreasing0.17vs 0.24 usual
Offensive LoadStable0.20vs 0.20 usual
Frontcourt LoadIncreasing0.04vs 0.03 usual
Creation responsibility has decreased and Frontcourt load has increased relative to this player's own recent baseline. Other role indicators are stable.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
manual lineup: starter
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+23.8
- Manually confirmed as starter — role change from recent form+5.0
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+14.8
- Team pace vs. league average+0.1
- Opponent defensive rating-1.1
Recent role context: Creation responsibility is below this player's own recent baseline.
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
4.423.2
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 3 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE4.9
Bias-2.4
Median AE3.7
3 evaluated games
REB
MAE2.5
Bias-2.5
Median AE3.1
3 evaluated games
AST
MAE1.6
Bias-1.6
Median AE1.4
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS44%+130
- 20+ PTS20%+403
- 25+ PTS6%+1478
- 30+ PTS1%+7253
- 35+ PTS0%+51865
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB