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GSW@
LAL
Malevy Leons
F · San Francisco Warriors
6'9"· 210 lbs· 26 years old
GSWLALMontolo Projects
0.5
PTS
0.3
REB
0.1
AST
0.0
3PM
1.8
MIN
0.9
PRA
0.1
STL
0.1
BLK
0.1
TOV
0.2
PF
60%Projection Support
Minutes44%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability2%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
LAL vs PF
How LAL has defended the PF position recently.
10.9
PTS allowed
4.9
REB allowed
1.7
AST allowed
1.3
3PM allowed
Based on 51 opposing PF performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
4.3
Average PTS
10
Games
12
High PTS
0
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
20+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
25+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
30+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationIncreasing0.09vs 0.04 usual
Offensive LoadStable0.12vs 0.14 usual
Frontcourt LoadStable0.10vs 0.08 usual
Creation responsibility has increased relative to this player's own recent baseline. Other role indicators are stable.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+11.9
- 358mi travel, 187 day rest-0.0
- No minutes — team's 240-minute regulation budget already spoken for by the rotation ahead-11.9
- Rotation-entry adjustment (p_entry=86%)+1.8
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+0.5
Recent role context: Creation responsibility is above this player's own recent baseline.
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
0.06.3
0.0
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 3 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE0.4
Bias-0.4
Median AE0.5
3 evaluated games
REB
MAE0.6
Bias-0.2
Median AE0.6
3 evaluated games
AST
MAE0.2
Bias-0.2
Median AE0.3
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS0%+99900
- 20+ PTS0%+99900
- 25+ PTS0%+99900
- 30+ PTS0%+99900
- 35+ PTS0%+99900
- 40+ PTS0%—
REB