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BOS@
DET
Tolu Smith
F · Detroit Pistons
6'11"· 26 years old
BOSDETMontolo Projects
0.0
PTS
0.0
REB
0.0
AST
0.0
3PM
0.0
MIN
0.0
PRA
0.0
STL
0.0
BLK
0.0
TOV
0.0
PF
48%Projection Support
Minutes6%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability0%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
BOS vs PF
How BOS has defended the PF position recently.
8.1
PTS allowed
3.9
REB allowed
1.6
AST allowed
0.9
3PM allowed
Based on 80 opposing PF performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
2.5
Average PTS
10
Games
8
High PTS
0
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
20+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
25+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
30+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent RoleProvisional10 games
CreationNot enough data0.27
Offensive LoadNot enough data0.18
Frontcourt LoadNot enough data0.13
Not enough historical data to compare recent role against this player's own baseline.
Sample: 10 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+8.0
- No minutes — team's 240-minute regulation budget already spoken for by the rotation ahead-8.0
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+0.0
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
0.06.9
0.0
P10
0.0
P25
0.0
Median
3.6
P75
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 4 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE13.0
Bias-13.0
Median AE13.1
4 evaluated games
REB
MAE5.2
Bias-5.2
Median AE6.8
4 evaluated games
AST
MAE0.9
Bias+0.1
Median AE
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS0%+37376
- 20+ PTS0%+99900
- 25+ PTS0%+99900
- 30+ PTS0%+99900
- 35+ PTS0%+99900
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB