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BOS@
DET
Elijah Harkless
G · Detroit Pistons
6'3"· 195 lbs· 26 years old
BOSDETMontolo Projects
4.8
PTS
1.3
REB
2.1
AST
0.4
3PM
13.2
MIN
8.2
PRA
0.9
STL
0.1
BLK
0.7
TOV
1.1
PF
68%Projection Support
Minutes57%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability32%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
BOS vs SG
How BOS has defended the SG position recently.
9.0
PTS allowed
2.7
REB allowed
2.0
AST allowed
1.3
3PM allowed
Based on 75 opposing SG performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
10.8
Average PTS
10
Games
23
High PTS
4
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
20%
2/10 historical
8%
model
20+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
2%
model
25+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
30+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationIncreasing0.20vs 0.07 usual
Offensive LoadIncreasing0.17vs 0.10 usual
Frontcourt LoadDecreasing0.01vs 0.04 usual
Creation responsibility has increased, Offensive load has increased and Frontcourt load has decreased relative to this player's own recent baseline.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+24.0
- DNP-risk adjustment (p=90%)-10.8
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+4.9
- Opponent defensive rating-0.1
Recent role context: Creation responsibility is above this player's own recent baseline, while Offensive Load is above its own recent baseline.
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
0.014.0
0.0
P10
0.0
P25
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 7 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE1.9
Bias-1.3
Median AE2.1
7 evaluated games
REB
MAE1.5
Bias-1.5
Median AE1.7
7 evaluated games
AST
MAE0.5
Bias
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS8%+1187
- 20+ PTS2%+5743
- 25+ PTS0%+40754
- 30+ PTS0%+99900
- 35+ PTS0%+99900
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB