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CLE@
PHI
James Harden
G · Cleveland Cavaliers
6'5"· 220 lbs· 37 years old
CLEPHIThu, Oct 22 · 11:00 PM
View game →Montolo Projects
19.1
PTS
4.7
REB
5.3
AST
2.2
3PM
35.7
MIN
29.1
PRA
1.6
STL
0.6
BLK
4.5
TOV
2.4
PF
84%Projection Support
Minutes88%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability73%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
PHI vs PG
How PHI has defended the PG position recently.
17.9
PTS allowed
4.3
REB allowed
5.0
AST allowed
2.1
3PM allowed
Based on 37 opposing PG performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
17.9
Average PTS
10
Games
30
High PTS
9
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
70%
7/10 historical
77%
model
20+ PTS
30%
3/10 historical
44%
model
25+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
16%
model
30+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
3%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationDecreasing0.25vs 0.35 usual
Offensive LoadStable0.26vs 0.26 usual
Frontcourt LoadStable0.02vs 0.02 usual
Creation responsibility has decreased relative to this player's own recent baseline. Other role indicators are stable.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+35.7
- 359mi travel, 150 day rest-0.0
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+19.1
- Team pace vs. league average+0.1
- Opponent defensive rating-0.1
Recent role context: Creation responsibility is below this player's own recent baseline.
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
11.726.6
11.7
P10
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 20 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE6.5
Bias+4.9
Median AE4.2
20 evaluated games
REB
MAE2.0
Bias+1.3
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS77%-328
- 20+ PTS44%+125
- 25+ PTS16%+535
- 30+ PTS3%+3156
- 35+ PTS0%+32086
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB