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ATL@
ORL
Ryan Nembhard
G · Atlanta Hawks
5'11"· 180 lbs· 23 years old
ATLORLWed, Oct 21 · 11:00 PM
View game →Montolo Projects
0.0
PTS
0.0
REB
0.0
AST
0.0
3PM
0.0
MIN
0.0
PRA
0.0
STL
0.0
BLK
0.0
TOV
0.0
PF
67%Projection Support
Minutes55%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability29%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
ORL vs PG
How ORL has defended the PG position recently.
25.5
PTS allowed
5.2
REB allowed
6.2
AST allowed
2.2
3PM allowed
Based on 22 opposing PG performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
7.6
Average PTS
10
Games
15
High PTS
0
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
0%
model
20+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
25+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
30+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationStable0.37vs 0.35 usual
Offensive LoadDecreasing0.16vs 0.18 usual
Frontcourt LoadStable0.01vs 0.01 usual
Offensive load has decreased relative to this player's own recent baseline. Other role indicators are stable.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+20.6
- 402mi travel, 174 day rest-0.0
- No minutes — team's 240-minute regulation budget already spoken for by the rotation ahead-20.6
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+0.0
Recent role context: Offensive Load is below this player's own recent baseline.
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
0.07.3
0.0
P10
0.0
P25
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 5 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE4.9
Bias+2.7
Median AE2.6
5 evaluated games
REB
MAE1.0
Bias+0.9
Median AE0.4
5 evaluated games
AST
MAE2.2
Bias+1.1
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS0%+23553
- 20+ PTS0%+99900
- 25+ PTS0%+99900
- 30+ PTS0%+99900
- 35+ PTS0%+99900
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB