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UTA@
MEM
Javon Small
G · Memphis Grizzlies
6'1"· 190 lbs· 23 years old
UTAMEMWed, Oct 21 · 12:00 AM
View game →Montolo Projects
10.6
PTS
3.1
REB
3.3
AST
1.7
3PM
19.6
MIN
17.1
PRA
1.0
STL
0.2
BLK
1.2
TOV
1.6
PF
79%Projection Support
Minutes81%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability57%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
UTA vs SG
How UTA has defended the SG position recently.
10.3
PTS allowed
3.0
REB allowed
2.6
AST allowed
1.5
3PM allowed
Based on 104 opposing SG performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
13.4
Average PTS
10
Games
23
High PTS
6
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
30%
3/10 historical
24%
model
20+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
7%
model
25+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
1%
model
30+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationStable0.24vs 0.27 usual
Offensive LoadStable0.18vs 0.18 usual
Frontcourt LoadStable0.04vs 0.04 usual
Recent role has been stable relative to this player's own baseline.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+21.6
- 484mi travel, 192 day rest-0.0
- Trimmed to fit team's 240-minute regulation cap-1.9
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+10.0
- Team pace vs. league average+0.1
- Opponent defensive rating+0.5
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
2.718.6
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 1 evaluated game.
PTS
MAE8.0
Bias+8.0
Median AE8.0
1 evaluated game
REB
MAE3.0
Bias+3.0
Median AE3.0
1 evaluated game
AST
MAE1.0
Bias+1.0
Median AE1.0
1 evaluated game
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS24%+316
- 20+ PTS7%+1414
- 25+ PTS1%+9394
- 30+ PTS0%+99900
- 35+ PTS0%+99900
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB