← Back to Players
PHX@
POR
Koby Brea
G · Phoenix Suns
6'5"· 215 lbs· 23 years old
PHXPORWed, Oct 21 · 2:00 AM
View game →Montolo Projects
0.0
PTS
0.0
REB
0.0
AST
0.0
3PM
0.0
MIN
0.0
PRA
0.0
STL
0.0
BLK
0.0
TOV
0.0
PF
46%Projection Support
Minutes0%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability0%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
POR vs SG
How POR has defended the SG position recently.
8.3
PTS allowed
2.8
REB allowed
1.8
AST allowed
0.9
3PM allowed
Based on 86 opposing SG performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
4.1
Average PTS
10
Games
20
High PTS
0
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
2%
model
20+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
0%
model
25+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
30+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent RoleProvisional10 games
CreationNot enough data0.15
Offensive LoadNot enough data0.22
Frontcourt LoadNot enough data0.00
Not enough historical data to compare recent role against this player's own baseline.
Sample: 10 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
1006mi travel
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+7.2
- 1006mi travel, 177 day rest-0.1
- No minutes — team's 240-minute regulation budget already spoken for by the rotation ahead-7.1
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+0.0
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
0.09.3
0.0
P10
0.0
P25
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 1 evaluated game.
PTS
MAE2.5
Bias-2.5
Median AE2.5
1 evaluated game
REB
MAE1.0
Bias+1.0
Median AE1.0
1 evaluated game
AST
MAE0.4
Bias+0.4
Median AE0.4
1 evaluated game
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS2%+5064
- 20+ PTS0%+34082
- 25+ PTS0%+99900
- 30+ PTS0%+99900
- 35+ PTS0%+99900
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB