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MIL@
WAS
Will Riley
F · Washington Wizards
6'9"· 180 lbs· 20 years old
MILWASWed, Oct 21 · 11:00 PM
View game →Montolo Projects
13.7
PTS
3.3
REB
2.4
AST
1.3
3PM
25.2
MIN
19.3
PRA
0.7
STL
0.1
BLK
1.6
TOV
1.5
PF
79%Projection Support
Minutes84%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability53%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
MIL vs PF
How MIL has defended the PF position recently.
10.7
PTS allowed
4.5
REB allowed
2.2
AST allowed
1.4
3PM allowed
Based on 69 opposing PF performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
18.2
Average PTS
10
Games
31
High PTS
2
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
70%
7/10 historical
44%
model
20+ PTS
50%
5/10 historical
24%
model
25+ PTS
20%
2/10 historical
10%
model
30+ PTS
20%
2/10 historical
3%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
1%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationStable0.13vs 0.13 usual
Offensive LoadStable0.21vs 0.20 usual
Frontcourt LoadDecreasing0.02vs 0.04 usual
Frontcourt load has decreased relative to this player's own recent baseline. Other role indicators are stable.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+25.2
- 305mi travel, 192 day rest-0.0
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+12.9
- Team pace vs. league average+0.3
- Opponent defensive rating+0.4
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
2.325.0
2.3
P10
7.7
P25
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 6 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE1.9
Bias-0.9
Median AE2.0
6 evaluated games
REB
MAE1.6
Bias-0.7
Median AE1.5
6 evaluated games
AST
MAE0.9
Bias-0.4
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS44%+129
- 20+ PTS24%+324
- 25+ PTS10%+900
- 30+ PTS3%+2966
- 35+ PTS1%+12291
- 40+ PTS0%+66578
REB