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MIL@
WAS
Kasparas Jakučionis
G · Milwaukee Bucks
6'5"· 200 lbs· 20 years old
MILWASWed, Oct 21 · 11:00 PM
View game →Montolo Projects
0.0
PTS
0.0
REB
0.0
AST
0.0
3PM
0.0
MIN
0.0
PRA
0.0
STL
0.0
BLK
0.0
TOV
0.0
PF
67%Projection Support
Minutes62%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability13%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
WAS vs SG
How WAS has defended the SG position recently.
9.9
PTS allowed
3.3
REB allowed
3.1
AST allowed
1.1
3PM allowed
Based on 96 opposing SG performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
6.7
Average PTS
10
Games
16
High PTS
0
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
1%
model
20+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
25+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
30+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationStable0.17vs 0.18 usual
Offensive LoadStable0.12vs 0.13 usual
Frontcourt LoadStable0.04vs 0.04 usual
Recent role has been stable relative to this player's own baseline.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+17.9
- 121mi travel, 192 day rest-0.0
- No minutes — team's 240-minute regulation budget already spoken for by the rotation ahead-17.9
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+0.0
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
0.08.6
0.0
P10
0.0
P25
0.0
Median
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 1 evaluated game.
PTS
MAE19.9
Bias+19.9
Median AE19.9
1 evaluated game
REB
MAE2.9
Bias+2.9
Median AE2.9
1 evaluated game
AST
MAE0.9
Bias+0.9
Median AE0.9
1 evaluated game
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS1%+7774
- 20+ PTS0%+69361
- 25+ PTS0%+99900
- 30+ PTS0%+99900
- 35+ PTS0%+99900
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB