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IND@
NOP
Derik Queen
C · New Orleans Pelicans
6'9"· 250 lbs· 21 years old
INDNOPWed, Oct 21 · 12:00 AM
View game →Montolo Projects
11.0
PTS
7.0
REB
3.3
AST
0.5
3PM
25.7
MIN
21.2
PRA
1.3
STL
1.1
BLK
2.6
TOV
2.4
PF
68%Projection Support
Minutes63%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability20%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
IND vs C
How IND has defended the C position recently.
10.5
PTS allowed
7.5
REB allowed
1.7
AST allowed
0.6
3PM allowed
Based on 31 opposing C performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
13.6
Average PTS
10
Games
30
High PTS
2
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
30%
3/10 historical
33%
model
20+ PTS
20%
2/10 historical
16%
model
25+ PTS
20%
2/10 historical
6%
model
30+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
2%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationDecreasing0.18vs 0.22 usual
Offensive LoadStable0.20vs 0.21 usual
Frontcourt LoadStable0.06vs 0.06 usual
Creation responsibility has decreased relative to this player's own recent baseline. Other role indicators are stable.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
1053mi travel
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+25.8
- 1053mi travel, 192 day rest-0.1
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+10.6
- Team pace vs. league average+0.1
- Opponent defensive rating+0.3
Recent role context: Creation responsibility is below this player's own recent baseline.
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
0.022.6
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 13 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE6.6
Bias+2.4
Median AE3.9
13 evaluated games
REB
MAE2.1
Bias-0.5
Median AE1.8
13 evaluated games
AST
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS33%+204
- 20+ PTS16%+525
- 25+ PTS6%+1540
- 30+ PTS2%+5485
- 35+ PTS0%+24857
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB