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MIL@
WAS
Tre Johnson
G · Washington Wizards
6'5"· 190 lbs· 20 years old
MILWASWed, Oct 21 · 11:00 PM
View game →Montolo Projects
12.6
PTS
3.4
REB
2.0
AST
1.7
3PM
23.9
MIN
17.9
PRA
0.4
STL
0.3
BLK
2.0
TOV
2.6
PF
83%Projection Support
Minutes91%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability64%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
MIL vs SG
How MIL has defended the SG position recently.
10.4
PTS allowed
3.0
REB allowed
2.7
AST allowed
1.6
3PM allowed
Based on 89 opposing SG performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
10.4
Average PTS
10
Games
17
High PTS
3
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
29%
model
20+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
5%
model
25+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
30+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationStable0.12vs 0.12 usual
Offensive LoadIncreasing0.25vs 0.21 usual
Frontcourt LoadStable0.02vs 0.02 usual
Offensive load has increased relative to this player's own recent baseline. Other role indicators are stable.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+23.9
- 305mi travel, 192 day rest-0.0
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+11.9
- Team pace vs. league average+0.3
- Opponent defensive rating+0.4
Recent role context: Offensive Load is above this player's own recent baseline.
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
6.918.2
6.9
P10
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 4 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE2.7
Bias-1.1
Median AE2.1
4 evaluated games
REB
MAE2.4
Bias-2.4
Median AE2.5
4 evaluated games
AST
MAE0.8
Bias-0.4
Median AE
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS29%+243
- 20+ PTS5%+2113
- 25+ PTS0%+43916
- 30+ PTS0%+99900
- 35+ PTS0%+99900
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB