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IND@
NOP
Caleb Houstan
G · New Orleans Pelicans
6'8"· 205 lbs· 23 years old
INDNOPWed, Oct 21 · 12:00 AM
View game →Montolo Projects
0.0
PTS
0.0
REB
0.0
AST
0.0
3PM
0.0
MIN
0.0
PRA
0.0
STL
0.0
BLK
0.0
TOV
0.0
PF
48%Projection Support
Minutes6%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability0%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
IND vs SG
How IND has defended the SG position recently.
8.9
PTS allowed
2.9
REB allowed
2.2
AST allowed
1.2
3PM allowed
Based on 90 opposing SG performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
2.2
Average PTS
10
Games
9
High PTS
0
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
20+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
25+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
30+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationDecreasing0.04vs 0.06 usual
Offensive LoadIncreasing0.14vs 0.12 usual
Frontcourt LoadIncreasing0.03vs 0.02 usual
Creation responsibility has decreased, Offensive load has increased and Frontcourt load has increased relative to this player's own recent baseline.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
1053mi travel
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+3.9
- 1053mi travel, 192 day rest-0.1
- No minutes — team's 240-minute regulation budget already spoken for by the rotation ahead-3.8
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+0.0
Recent role context: Creation responsibility is below this player's own recent baseline, while Offensive Load is above its own recent baseline.
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
0.04.9
0.0
P10
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 20 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE2.1
Bias-0.3
Median AE1.5
20 evaluated games
REB
MAE1.2
Bias+0.1
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS0%+99900
- 20+ PTS0%+99900
- 25+ PTS0%+99900
- 30+ PTS0%+99900
- 35+ PTS0%—
- 40+ PTS0%—
REB