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MIL@
WAS
Ousmane Dieng
F · Milwaukee Bucks
6'9"· 185 lbs· 23 years old
MILWASWed, Oct 21 · 11:00 PM
View game →Montolo Projects
3.5
PTS
1.4
REB
1.2
AST
0.4
3PM
8.7
MIN
6.2
PRA
0.2
STL
0.1
BLK
0.8
TOV
0.7
PF
75%Projection Support
Minutes77%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability38%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
WAS vs PF
How WAS has defended the PF position recently.
12.3
PTS allowed
4.3
REB allowed
2.1
AST allowed
1.4
3PM allowed
Based on 62 opposing PF performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
14.2
Average PTS
10
Games
36
High PTS
7
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
30%
3/10 historical
9%
model
20+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
2%
model
25+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
1%
model
30+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
0%
model
35+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationIncreasing0.21vs 0.15 usual
Offensive LoadIncreasing0.21vs 0.18 usual
Frontcourt LoadIncreasing0.03vs 0.01 usual
Creation responsibility has increased, Offensive load has increased and Frontcourt load has increased relative to this player's own recent baseline.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+23.2
- 121mi travel, 192 day rest-0.0
- Trimmed to fit team's 240-minute regulation cap-14.4
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+3.4
- Team pace vs. league average-0.1
- Opponent defensive rating+0.2
Recent role context: Creation responsibility is above this player's own recent baseline, while Offensive Load is above its own recent baseline.
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 20 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE3.1
Bias+0.5
Median AE3.1
20 evaluated games
REB
MAE0.9
Bias-0.1
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS9%+1062
- 20+ PTS2%+3940
- 25+ PTS1%+19179
- 30+ PTS0%+99900
- 35+ PTS0%+99900
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB