← Back to Players
MIN@
MIA
Dru Smith
G · Miami Heat
6'2"· 203 lbs· 28 years old
MINMIAWed, Oct 21 · 11:30 PM
View game →Montolo Projects
1.2
PTS
0.7
REB
0.8
AST
0.1
3PM
4.9
MIN
2.7
PRA
0.5
STL
0.1
BLK
0.2
TOV
0.6
PF
62%Projection Support
Minutes46%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability14%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
MIN vs SG
How MIN has defended the SG position recently.
8.8
PTS allowed
3.0
REB allowed
2.0
AST allowed
0.9
3PM allowed
Based on 75 opposing SG performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
4.0
Average PTS
10
Games
9
High PTS
0
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
20+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
25+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
30+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationIncreasing0.25vs 0.20 usual
Offensive LoadDecreasing0.12vs 0.15 usual
Frontcourt LoadIncreasing0.05vs 0.04 usual
Creation responsibility has increased, Offensive load has decreased and Frontcourt load has increased relative to this player's own recent baseline.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+15.4
- 654mi travel, 190 day rest-0.1
- Trimmed to fit team's 240-minute regulation cap-10.5
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+1.2
Recent role context: Creation responsibility is above this player's own recent baseline, while Offensive Load is below its own recent baseline.
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
0.05.7
0.0
P10
0.0
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 20 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE2.9
Bias-0.2
Median AE2.2
20 evaluated games
REB
MAE1.8
Bias+0.7
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS0%+99900
- 20+ PTS0%+99900
- 25+ PTS0%+99900
- 30+ PTS0%+99900
- 35+ PTS0%—
- 40+ PTS0%—
REB