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IND@
NOP
Herbert Jones
F · New Orleans Pelicans
6'7"· 206 lbs· 27 years old
INDNOPWed, Oct 21 · 12:00 AM
View game →Montolo Projects
9.3
PTS
3.4
REB
2.9
AST
1.8
3PM
27.5
MIN
15.6
PRA
1.5
STL
0.4
BLK
1.4
TOV
3.3
PF
75%Projection Support
Minutes72%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability47%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
IND vs PF
How IND has defended the PF position recently.
11.2
PTS allowed
4.4
REB allowed
2.1
AST allowed
1.2
3PM allowed
Based on 71 opposing PF performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
8.3
Average PTS
10
Games
13
High PTS
2
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
14%
model
20+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
2%
model
25+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
30+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationStable0.14vs 0.13 usual
Offensive LoadIncreasing0.16vs 0.15 usual
Frontcourt LoadStable0.03vs 0.03 usual
Offensive load has increased relative to this player's own recent baseline. Other role indicators are stable.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
1053mi travel
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+27.6
- 1053mi travel, 192 day rest-0.1
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+8.9
- Team pace vs. league average+0.1
- Opponent defensive rating+0.3
Recent role context: Offensive Load is above this player's own recent baseline.
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
2.416.1
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 20 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE3.7
Bias-0.1
Median AE3.4
20 evaluated games
REB
MAE1.6
Bias-0.2
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS14%+611
- 20+ PTS2%+4358
- 25+ PTS0%+59775
- 30+ PTS0%+99900
- 35+ PTS0%+99900
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB