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CHI@
TOR
Isaac Okoro
F-G · Chicago Bulls
6'4"· 225 lbs· 25 years old
CHITORWed, Oct 21 · 11:30 PM
View game →Montolo Projects
10.0
PTS
2.8
REB
1.8
AST
1.3
3PM
26.9
MIN
14.5
PRA
1.0
STL
0.3
BLK
0.8
TOV
2.5
PF
80%Projection Support
Minutes82%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability63%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
TOR vs SF
How TOR has defended the SF position recently.
8.1
PTS allowed
3.0
REB allowed
1.1
AST allowed
0.8
3PM allowed
Based on 31 opposing SF performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
10.3
Average PTS
10
Games
20
High PTS
6
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
13%
model
20+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
1%
model
25+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
30+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
35+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
40+ PTS
0%
0/10 historical
0%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationIncreasing0.09vs 0.06 usual
Offensive LoadStable0.14vs 0.14 usual
Frontcourt LoadDecreasing0.03vs 0.04 usual
Creation responsibility has increased and Frontcourt load has decreased relative to this player's own recent baseline. Other role indicators are stable.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
1203mi travel
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+27.1
- 1203mi travel, 192 day rest-0.1
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+9.9
- Team pace vs. league average+0.3
- Opponent defensive rating-0.2
Recent role context: Creation responsibility is above this player's own recent baseline.
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
4.215.7
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 20 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE3.3
Bias+0.5
Median AE2.2
20 evaluated games
REB
MAE1.6
Bias+0.0
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS13%+666
- 20+ PTS1%+8045
- 25+ PTS0%+99900
- 30+ PTS0%+99900
- 35+ PTS0%+99900
- 40+ PTS0%+99900
REB