Wendell Carter Jr.

C-F · Orlando Magic

6'10"· 270 lbs· 27 years old

ATL

ORL

Wed, Oct 21 · 11:00 PM

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Montolo Projects

11.3

PTS

7.0

REB

1.7

AST

0.6

3PM

30.2

MIN

20.1

PRA

0.6

STL

1.1

BLK

1.5

TOV

3.5

78%Projection Support

Minutes81%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability48%Recent Sample100%

Matchup Context

Position Environment

ATL vs C

How ATL has defended the C position recently.

11.0

PTS allowed

7.1

REB allowed

2.2

AST allowed

0.6

3PM allowed

Based on 42 opposing C performances across 20 recent games.

Research

PTS · Last 10

Stat

Period

Split

Situation (Rest)

Playing Time

Role

10.1

Average PTS

Games

High PTS

Low PTS

Historical Hit RateModel

15+ PTS

20%

2/10 historical

29%

model

20+ PTS

0/10 historical

10%

model

25+ PTS

0/10 historical

model

30+ PTS

0/10 historical

model

35+ PTS

0/10 historical

model

40+ PTS

0/10 historical

model

Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.

Recent Role20 games

Creation0.08vs 0.11 usual

Offensive Load0.15vs 0.16 usual

Frontcourt Load0.08vs 0.06 usual

Creation responsibility has decreased, Offensive load has decreased and Frontcourt load has increased relative to this player's own recent baseline.

Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.

Why This Projection

Minutes

Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+30.3
958mi travel, 171 day rest-0.1

PTS

Season/recent-form rate x minutes+11.4
Opponent defensive rating-0.2

Recent role context: Creation responsibility is below this player's own recent baseline, while Offensive Load is below its own recent baseline.

Projection Distribution · PTS

Model projection rangenot a guarantee

2.620.0

2.6

P10

6.7

P25

Projection Accuracy · PTS

ProjectedActual

Historical Model Performance

How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 20 evaluated games.

PTS

MAE5.7

Bias-1.9

Median AE4.7

20 evaluated games

REB

MAE3.0

Bias-1.4

MilestonesModel probability & fair odds

▾

Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.

MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds

PTS

15+ PTS29%+241
20+ PTS10%+900
25+ PTS2%+4489
30+ PTS0%+33934
35+ PTS0%+99900
40+ PTS0%+99900

REB