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CLE@
PHI
Donovan Mitchell
G · Cleveland Cavaliers
6'2"· 215 lbs· 30 years old
CLEPHIThu, Oct 22 · 11:00 PM
View game →Montolo Projects
26.1
PTS
4.9
REB
3.2
AST
2.6
3PM
34.5
MIN
34.1
PRA
1.1
STL
0.3
BLK
2.5
TOV
2.9
PF
85%Projection Support
Minutes91%Role100%Availability65%Stat Stability74%Recent Sample100%
Matchup Context
Position Environment
PHI vs SG
How PHI has defended the SG position recently.
8.0
PTS allowed
2.9
REB allowed
1.9
AST allowed
1.1
3PM allowed
Based on 89 opposing SG performances across 20 recent games.
Research
PTS · Last 10
Stat
Period
Split
Situation (Rest)
Playing Time
Role
28.3
Average PTS
10
Games
43
High PTS
18
Low PTS
Historical Hit RateModel
15+ PTS
100%
10/10 historical
92%
model
20+ PTS
90%
9/10 historical
78%
model
25+ PTS
70%
7/10 historical
56%
model
30+ PTS
40%
4/10 historical
31%
model
35+ PTS
20%
2/10 historical
13%
model
40+ PTS
10%
1/10 historical
4%
model
Historical = actual results in the selected games. Model = the projection engine's calibrated probability for tonight — two different things, never combined.
Recent Role20 games
CreationDecreasing0.17vs 0.28 usual
Offensive LoadStable0.31vs 0.30 usual
Frontcourt LoadIncreasing0.02vs 0.02 usual
Creation responsibility has decreased and Frontcourt load has increased relative to this player's own recent baseline. Other role indicators are stable.
Sample: 20 games · Updated Sep 14. Describes role, not player quality — not a projection input.
Why This Projection
Minutes
- Blending in 0 current-season game(s) (30% last-10 + 70% season)+34.6
- 359mi travel, 150 day rest-0.0
PTS
- Season/recent-form rate x minutes+26.0
- Team pace vs. league average+0.1
- Opponent defensive rating-0.1
Recent role context: Creation responsibility is below this player's own recent baseline.
Projection Distribution · PTS
Model projection rangenot a guarantee
16.136.1
16.1
P10
Projection Accuracy · PTS
ProjectedActual
Historical Model Performance
How the model's pregame projections have compared to this player's actual results in 20 evaluated games.
PTS
MAE7.9
Bias+1.1
Median AE9.2
20 evaluated games
REB
MAE3.0
Bias+1.5
MilestonesModel probability & fair odds▾
Model Fair Odds are the theoretical American odds implied by our calibrated probability. They are not sportsbook prices.
MilestoneProbabilityFair Odds
PTS
- 15+ PTS92%-1191
- 20+ PTS78%-360
- 25+ PTS56%-125
- 30+ PTS31%+224
- 35+ PTS13%+687
- 40+ PTS4%+2572
REB